What can make you a better forecaster? Let’s explore some brain-based indicators:

YOU ARE A CRITICAL THINKER. You step back and become aware of your own thought processes. You realise that your thinking needs to be analytical and thorough. You ask yourself questions such as Q. What is influencing my thinking with this topic? Q. Why am I so uneasy about my initial projections? You check constantly for mistakes you may have made, and you think in terms of uncertainty. Rethinking what you have predicted is a regular occurrence.

YOU DEMONSTRATE A GROWTH MINDSET. You love learning, and you savour discovering different perspectives. Conversely, in a fixed mindset, you would curtail any decent efforts to learning something new, and you would rather not read an article that is opposed to what you believe. There are some indications that the older you are, the less likely you are to change your mind. Philip Tetlock explains that most experts are “too quick to make up their minds and too slow to change them.” Society needs to value people who adjust their mindset, rather than those who stubbornly hold on to age-old and disproven beliefs.

YOU FOCUS ON PRECISION. Anyone can make a vague statement about something occurring in the future e.g. tech stock will go up over the next two years. Good predictors, such as you, will be much more precise about your projection, and will do the reading necessary to calculate a clear projection into the future. For example, you may research and then arrive at the probability that “Nvidia shares will rise by 4% to 5% within the next 8 months.”

Your affective attributes – derived from your emotional intellect – are equally critical when you want to enhance your predictive ability. Here are two that can benefit you.

YOU ARE A TEAM PLAYER. There is merit in sometimes working with a diverse team. Other people can offer different perspectives that did not occur to you. Their musings might spark an idea that leads to a much more powerful prediction. The one issue? Be aware of what is called group think, in which you all agree on everything because you do not want to appear rude. Instead, each team member must respectfully challenge ideas when warranted, and each must accept the response to that challenge without becoming defensive.

YOU EXPRESS HUMILITY. You know that few predictions will ever be perfect. No matter how exhaustively you conduct your research, there is still some likelihood that you might be incorrect. It is advisable to approach all predicting efforts with deep humility. Refrain from overconfidence, and accept that you will sometimes be incorrect. Be prepared to change your mind, be endlessly cautious with your calculations, and avoid black-or-white thinking.