It’s often said that science fiction can predict the future. Here’s a brief look into the reality of SF predictive capacity.
Some sci-fi writers do manage to prophesise or influence the future. Science fiction can become science fact in a short period of time. In 1998, a movie called ‘The Truman Show’ featured Jim Carrey, who acted out the part of Truman Burbank. This character was unknowingly followed in everyday life by the OmniCam Corporation, who portrayed Truman’s daily adventures in a high rating TV show. If you have since enjoyed Survivor or Big Brother, you can probably thank Truman.
Science fiction has a long history of predicting future technologies and lifestyles. The sci-fi genre is attractive to us in part because we are fascinated by what lies up ahead. Some books or movies turn out to be accurate, while many do not. Even amongst the so-called accurate ones, some would have eventually occurred simply through chance. One concern is the dystopian bias that is often built into sci-fi script in order to sensationalise the action. Spoiler alert: the future will not always feature dramatic and terrifying circumstances. It will also include plenty of routine everyday events as well.
What else did sci-fi predict? The Dick Tracy comic strip in 1946 featured a two-way wrist watch. At the time, it seemed far-fetched, and yet users can now make calls on their smart watch. Even late in the 20th century, international telephone voice calls were charged by the minute. Now, video calls on WeChat, Facetime and other apps are free. This form of video technology first featured in a 1911 novel called “Ralph 124C 41+” by Hugo Gernsback.
Star Trek provided some compelling indications about future technologies, with references to voice activated computers, debit cards, and audio translation back in 1979. George Orwell wrote his dystopian ‘1984’ back in 1949, and focused on the consequences of mass surveillance and totalitarian regimes. The technology included ‘telescreens’ for observation, and ‘SpeakWrites’, which could convert speech into text. The concept of ‘Big Brother’ still applies in real-life TV shows, and in the minds of some power-hungry leaders.
The “hunter seeker” assassin drone in Frank Herbert’s 1956 novel Dune was an indicator of the modern-day drone. Star Wars also featured small autonomous flying devices. The first commercial drone permit was not issued until 2006 by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration. Further back in 1936, Raymond Z. Gallun predicted robo-bees that could pollinate crops. This has been popularized in the series Black Mirror. In a 1964 New York Times article, Isaac Asimov first wrote about cars that would have a ‘robot brain’, and could be set to drive to a particular destination by itself. Although the required technology is more complex than originally thought, autonomous cars will become commonplace in the 2030s.
Other movies and books were not so successful in their predictions. Many of the earlier sci-fi efforts featured flying cars and old-fashioned landline phones. Hoverboards are still to make an appearance. The post-apocalyptic Mad Max, in which looters featured in a world without fuel, has thankfully not yet come to pass. So too the Predator series, in which aliens devastate the planet. Two questions need to be asked about movies like this. Why are the aliens always featured as the bad guys? And: Why do so many of these movies focus on destroying New York? Please continue to enjoy the sci-fi genre, while also maintaining a neutral stance on the negative biases the script may contain.