Prediction (Latin prae, “before”, and dicere, “to say”) is a statement about something before it happens. There are various synonyms for prediction. Forecast. Foretell. Prophesise. Prescience. Plan. Prognosticate. Create. Precognition. Foreshadow. My interpretation is that they are all variations on determining what might happen up ahead. Forecasting and prediction are the two most common overlapping terms, and I will use them interchangeably throughout this site. Some futurists consider forecasting to be based upon data analysis, while prediction might rely more on personal judgement.

Various acronyms are used to predict the future. Not many are heartening. VUCA is well-known, and stands for Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity. Each of these qualities attest that the future environment will be dynamic, uncontrollable, disrupted, and in a constant state of flux. BANI is a more negative concept, and stands for Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear and Incomprehensible.

Prediction can be complex. We are dealing with human choice, probably the most significant variable on this planet. No amount of data analysis can fully unravel what people might decide to do on a whim in the future. While a specific prediction might be made today, it may become wildly inaccurate by the time that large numbers of people have become involved. Because of this, the complex factors required to program a computer simulation of a future event can be infinite.

While predictions can be made for events that are days or months ahead, the most common form of predicting the future occurs just a few seconds ahead. This is to your lifetime advantage. You predict what will most likely occur when you engage with certain people in a specific way. You predict the content of an article after reading the first sentence. You predict the quality of a movie within the first minute. You predict how your children will react to specific challenges, which helps you to positively resolve an issue with them. Whether it is in the short or the long term, there are three perspectives on what we mean by prediction.