The first perspective on forecasting the future is that you cannot predict anything that occurs by chance. An event that is pure luck – such as the Lotto winning numbers for next Saturday night – cannot be determined beforehand. Black Swan events – such as earthquakes and sudden accidents – occur out of the blue, and no amount of scientific analysis can forecast those disasters.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan, writes about the critical importance of uncertainty and randomness. For him, there are too many variables involved in most events to ever hope to foresee with any certainty. Predicting long-term geopolitical events is fraught with dilemma, given the complex circumstances involved with those situations. You can expect the unexpected.

The second perspective gives us more cause for thought. It is when you extensively research the probability of an event occurring, while taking account of every possible factor, and then adding some human wisdom and insight. Think of weather reports, which offer you a scientifically valid percentage chance of rain e.g., 70%. Such a prediction combines meteorological analysis with the foresight of an accomplished weather forecaster.

All predictions fit somewhere between a highly unlikely and a definite probability of happening. In contrast to Black Swan events (which are near-impossible to predict), a White Swan occurrence is very predictable, and will have a high probability of taking place. COVID-19 might be one example. A grey swan event has a low probability of happening, although its impact will be significant. The 9/11 attacks on the US would be one example of this descriptor.

The third perspective on prediction is when you decide to accomplish something, and you are strongly committed to making it happen. Let’s call it self-determinism. For you, the future is not something to predict. It is something you shape. As Peter Drucker said: “The best way to predict the future is to create it.” For tomorrow, you consciously plan to eat a healthy breakfast, smile at your children when they wake up, take public transport to work, complete your latest mini-project, and exercise in the local gym when you finish work. There will sometimes be circumstances that prevent you from doing some of these, but committing to them increases the probability of them occurring.

When you engage in a healthy lifestyle, you are more likely to enjoy a healthier future. Saving and investing your money will prepare you for a time when you may be less capable of earning it yourself. Raising your children is perhaps the ultimate example of creating the future. Filling their lives with an entire series of protective factors – unconditional love, good friends, sport, community activities – is more likely to lead to them becoming self-confident and loving adults. Your future self will be grateful for these efforts by your present self.

An opposing theory to self-determinism is known as pre-determinism, in which you believe your future has been mapped out through some universal design. Some might call it fate. If you believe this, then there is nothing you can do to influence your life up ahead, let alone the lives of your family or friends. I humbly recommend that you stop reading this text if that is your perspective. To you, every accident was meant to happen. Every stroke of good luck was only through divine intervention. You are convinced that you have little agency over your life, and that you are merely following a path that has been pre-ordained for you. I pay respect to your belief. I just don’t agree with it, given everything that I have researched about personal capacity to influence one’s future.

There is an overlap between these two beliefs. A balance between self- and pre-determinism might be referred to as opportunity, in which you stay open to possibilities that the universe presents to you. When such an opportunity arises, you would make every effort to respond to that chance. This mid-point belief accepts that while the universal flow is all-powerful and difficult to change, you can still occasionally influence its direction. Whichever belief you hold, you will soon come to understand that prediction is not infallible. Some forecasts will turn out to be accurate, while others will end up being wildly incorrect.